New Colorado River Plan Could Spell Water Cutbacks for Arizona, California, and Nevada

A federal plan to manage the drying-up Colorado River could have major impacts for communities across Arizona, California, and Nevada.

The Bureau of Reclamation released a new proposed 10-year framework governing water usage from the Colorado River—a plan that could mandate reductions in water use from the "lower basin" states. But it doesn't require cuts from the four "upper basin" states, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming.

The government is preparing more plans that require water use reductions of up to 20% from the lower basin states, The Washington Post reported. Longer-term, that could grow to 40%.

Such a plan for cutbacks could have major implications for the communities in those areas, especially Arizona, which would bear a large share of cuts. And it comes at a time when cities and their housing markets are booming.

“The Department has a responsibility to ensure the Colorado River system remains reliable and resilient for the millions of Americans, communities and industries that depend on it," said Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. "This framework provides the flexibility to respond to changing hydrologic conditions while preserving the opportunity for the Basin States to continue working toward durable, consensus-based solutions.”

The government is hoping to resolve an impasse between the seven states over how to use the river, which supplies water and hydroelectric power to 40 million people, and waters 5 million acres of farmland along the river. But potential legal challenges are likely to come.

Crisis level

The Environmental Impact Statement comes at a time when the river and its two main basins, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, are at their lowest levels since the Glen Canyon Dam's construction in 1963.

Persistent drought conditions for 25 years as well as continued development have caused water use to exceed the amount of water coming into the region, resulting in a noticeable drop in the water levels in both basins. The government estimated this month that Lake Powell will fall too low for the dam to generate power by next March.

The 1922 Colorado River Compact governed the use of the river among states, tribes, and Mexico. But its system prioritizes users on a first-come, first-served basis that disadvantages newcomers. That has big implications for Arizona, which has seen major growth in recent years.

In the report, the government noted the rules have the potential to constrain development and growth in the cities it impacts. It could also mean major cutbacks for water for existing residents.

But, the lower basin used far more water than the upper basin, the Department of Interior said. Those states accounted for 49% of the water consumption from 2020 to 2024, compared to 29% in the upper basin.

Assistant Secretary for Water and Science Andrea Travnicek said, though, that the plan "strikes a balance between flexibility and predictability" for the Colorado River system, and "allows a new flexibility to respond to changing conditions and potential consensus."

Arizona cries foul

Arizona leaders immediately and sharply criticized the plan. In a statement, Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs decried the agreement, noting that the state has already shouldered significant water usage reductions.

And the state has cracked down on some development. Notably, Hobbs has proposed upping the charge for water-hungry data centers.

The agreement "contains unacceptable options that include the federal government forcing Arizona to take the majority of draconian water cutbacks," Hobbs said.

"Solving the Colorado River crisis demands a fair, basin-wide solution in which every stakeholder is asked to sacrifice," Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego said in an X post. "Instead, the federal gov takes aim at Arizona and Lower Basin states even though we continue to do our part and conservation is a core part of our culture."